HIGH END DATA POINTS
• YTD Sales $1MM+: 9, $2MM+: 1, $3MM+: 0, $1,000+/Sq.Ft.: 2, $1MM+ as % of total sales: 14.52
(This is a surprisingly slow start to 2012 but we think it is temporary)
HEADLINES
Hub ‘On The Rebound - Boston Herald – 1/18/2012 – “Positive economic trends over the past year have kept Boston in the top 10 of the nation’s largest metropolitan areas for income and employment growth, according to a new Global MetroMonitor report”
Mass. jobs data present a mixed picture- Boston Globe – 1/20/2012 – “The Massachusetts unemployment rate last month fell below 7 percent for the first time in three years, the state Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development reported today. The state jobless rate declined to 6.8 percent from 7 percent in November.”
Micro-room With A View - Boston Herald – 1/14/2012 - “the idea comes on the heels of a Menino administration push for super-small and more affordable apartments in rental projects on the South Boston waterfront.”
Low Rates, Inventory heat up winter sales - Boston Herald – 1/20 /2012 – “In the Boston Downtown market, low inventory and a lack of new construction is helping the market keep a steady pace in January. Like many other Downtown Boston neighborhoods, the big story for the beginning of 2012 in the South End is the lowest number of homes available for sale since we have been keeping records."
France, Spain pass key borrowing test - Boston Globe – 1/20/2012 – “Worries about the 17-nation eurozone have receded since the start of the year, with stocks rallying consistently and bond yields - the rate countries pay to borrow - sliding.”
Fed Begins an Effort to Remove All Doubt on What It’s Doing - New York Times – 1/23/2012 – “Some Fed officials have advocated that the Fed buy large quantities of mortgage-backed securities, which could further reduce interest rates on mortgage loans.”
O&A View
Three weeks into the 2012 there are not enough closed transactions to formulate an opinion about the market. However we can state that we are off to a slow start and that is surprising. One data point that has our attention is available inventory, or lack of inventory to be precise. A three year comparison of 1/20/2010, 1/20/2011, 1/20/2012 from MLS shows a dramatic drop in inventory:
Trend of Condominium Inventory in Downtown Boston (Source MLS/Pin)
1/20/2010 1/20/2011 1/20/2012
988 845 (-14.5%) 678 (-19.8%)
YE Sales Transaction 2011 – 2719, here is how they break down:
# of Sales Price Segment Sales per Month
1490 0-$499K 124.2/Month
856 $500K-$999K 71.3/Per Month
373 $1MM+ 31.1/Per Month
2719 All Prices 226.6/Month
Total Inventory: 678 (Source MLS/Pin 1/20/2012)
Inventory break down by price:
Price Segment Inventory Sales per month Months Supply of Inventory
0-$499K 255 124.2 2.05
$500K-$999K 255 71.3 3.57
$1MM+ 168 31.1 5.40
All Price Points 678 226.6 2.99
The universally accepted “balanced market” is 6-7 months of inventory therefore upward pressure on prices is imminent with a few over asking price sales occurring recently.
For a copy of Otis & Ahearn's Downtown Boston Condominium Weekly Report, click here to request.
|
